bs-radar episode 1

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manual watson google voxolab microsoft
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Hello, and welcome to the first episode of the Bullshit Radar. hello and welcome to the first episode of the bullshit trader hello and welcome to the first episode of the bullshit Raider — Thank — Hello and welcome to the first showed up the you traitor Hello and Welcome to the first episode of the b******* Raider.
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Data is a powerful tool to back up arguments and be more convincing. data is a powerful tool to back up arguments and did more convincing data is a powerful tool to back and arguments and they were data is a powerful tool to back your arguments and bieber convincing Data is a powerful tool to backup arguments and Ibra convincing.
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it is quite easy, however, to be it is quite easy however to be misled by inaccurate data or to convincing it is quite easy however to be misled inaccurate it is quite easy however to be misled by inaccurate data or to It is quite easy, however, to be misled by inaccurate
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misled by inaccurate data, or to cherry pick data, to confirm one's cherry pick data to confirms when he practices the video game industry data or to cherry-pick data to confirms one hypothesis cherry pick data to confirms one who practices the video game industry data or to cherry pick data to confirms one he purchases.
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hypothesis. The video game industry is no exception. is no exception it is important to keep a critical time when looking the video game industry is no exception is important to keep is no exception it 's important to keep a critical time when looking Video game industry is no exception.
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it is important to keep a a critical eye when looking at data numbers and statistics It is important to keep a critical eye when looking
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critical eye when looking at data, numbers, and statistics. at data numbers and statistics in this series of videos will take at data at numbers and statistics in this series of videos will take at data numbers and statistics.
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In this series of videos, we'll take different examples, and make them different examples and make them pass are bullshit raider text let's in the series of Beados will take different examples and different examples and they can pass our bullshit greater tests let's In this series of videos will take different examples and make them
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pass our bullshit radar test. Let's start by looking at the start by looking at the impressive digital revenues generated by GTE make them path bowlshit Raider tab let's start by looking at start by looking at the impressive digital revenues generated by gt pass are b******* trader test.
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impressive digital revenues, generated by GTA. the impressive digital revenue generated by GTA in 2014 talking eight in two thousand and fourteen talking about gt online take two Let's start by looking at the impressive digital revenues
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In 2014, talking about GTA Online, in two thousand fourteen talking about GTA online take two CEO about GTA online take to see you throw Selleck told him generated by GTA in 2014 talking about getti online take 2 CEOs
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Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told MCV: "It's a free game, but revenue from Stroessner told MTV it's a free game but revenue some digitally maybe it's a free game butts revenue from digitally delivered ceos throws downlink told mtv it's a free game but revenue digitally throw cell Nick told him Stevie.
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digitally-delivered content grew to $132.8 million. It's a free game that revenue from
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delivered content grew to one hundred and thirty two point eight content group to 142.8 delivered content grew to one hundred and thirty two point eight million digitally delivered content grew to 132.8
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Nearly half that revenue was million nearly half that revenue was derived from recurrent consumer million nearly half that's Revenue was derived from recurrent nearly half half that revenue was derived from recurrent consumer million nearly half that revenue was derived from recurrent consumer
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derived from recurrent consumer spending. spending Grand Theft Auto online what the single largest contributor consumer spending Grand Theft Auto online what's the single spending grand theft auto online what the single largest contributor spending Grand Theft Auto online.
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Grand Theft Auto Online was the single largest contributor to our to our digitally delivered revenue into sort of corner can you guess largest contributor to our digitally delivered Revenue in the third to our digitally delivered revenue industry quarter can you guess what At the single largest contributor to our digitally delivered
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digitally-delivered revenue in the third quarter." quarter can you guess what would the most popular interpretation revenue in the third quarter.
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Can you guess what was the most popular interpretation of this quote? what was the most popular interpretation of this quote GTA of the quote GTA online revenues represent how to take to digitally was the most popular interpretation of this quote do you online revenues Can you guess?
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GTA Online revenues represent What was the most popular interpretation of this quote
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online revenues represents how could take two's digitally delivered we present house of take two's digitally deliver revenues sixty GTA online revenues represents?
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half of Take-Two's digitally-delivered revenues, hence revenues hands sixty five million dollars but is this interpretation delivered revenues 65 million dollars but is this interpretation How could take 2's digitally delivered revenues.
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sixty five million dollars. But, is this interpretation five million dollars but is this interpretation correct well no it's $65 Million, but is this interpretation
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correct? Well, no. correct well no it's not what did Mr Zelnick really say digital correct well no it's not what did mr. not what did mr zelnick really say digital revenue for take two are correct well no it's not.
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It's not. What did Mr Zelnick really say? zelnik really say digital revenue for take to or about 133 Millions What did Mr.
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Digital revenue for Take-Two are about one hundred and thirty three revenue for take two are about one hundred and thirty three millions about one hundred and thirty three millions first recurrence consumer Zelnick really say digital revenue for take 2 are about 133 millions?
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millions. First. first recurrence consumer spending represent approximately fifty first recurrence consumer spending represents approximately 50% of First wrecker and consumer spending represents approximately 50%
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Recurrent consumer spending represent, approximately, fifty spending represent approximately fifty percent of those digital
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percent of those digital revenues. They include percent of those digital revenues they include downloadable content those digital revenues include downloadable contents online gaming revenues they include downloadable content online gaming and micro of those digital revenues.
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downloadable content, online gaming, and microtransactions. online gaming and microtones actions GTA online belongs to disk territory and microtransactions GTA online belongs to this category among of transactions duty online belongs to discuss chicory along other games They include downloadable content online gaming and micro transactions
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GTA Online belongs to this category, among other games secondly GTA online is the single largest the games secondly GTA online is the single largest contributor to GTA online belongs to this category among other games.
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among other games. Secondly, GTA Online is the single secondly gtl line is the single largest contributor to take to Secondly GTA online is a single largest contributor to take 2's
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largest contributor to Take-Two's digitally-delivered revenue. contributor to take two's digitally delivered revenue but it can be take to digital delivered Revenue but it can be the largest contributor digitally delivered revenue but it can be to largest contributor of digitally deliverd revenue.
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But it can be the largest contributor of those revenues, and the largest contributor of those revenues and represent twenty of those revenues and represent 20% of the total it can even represents those revenues and represent twenty percent of the total it can even But it can be the largest contributor of those revenues
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represent twenty percent of the total. percent of the total it can even represent less than ten percent and represent 20% of the total.
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It can even represent less than ten percent. less than 10% in fact we have no idea how much it represent the numbers represent less than ten percent in fact we had no idea how much it It can even represent less than 10%.
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In fact, we have no idea how much it in fact we have no idea how much it represents are the numbers represents are the numbers mentioned by mr zelek act but does he lie In fact, we have no idea how much it represents.
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represents. Are the numbers mentioned mentioned by Mr Zelnick accurate yes does he lying in his statement mentioned by mr. Are the numbers mentioned by Mr.
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by Mr Zelnick accurate? Yes. Yet does he lie in his statement No does he think men provide an Zelnick accurate yes?
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Does he lie in his statement? No. statement does he statement provide an accurate picture of the situation Does he lie in his statement.
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Does his statement provide an accurate picture of the situation? no does he statement provide an accurate picture of the situation accurate picture of the situation not really Publishers know how No does he statement provide an accurate picture of the situation.
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Not really. Publishers not really publishers know how to formulate their sentences to give really publishers know how to formulate their sentences to give Not really.
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know how to formulate their sentences to give room to room two interpretations why would you do that we can only make to formulate their sentences to give room to interpretations why room to interpretations why would you do that we can only make Publishers know how to formulate their sentence is to give
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interpretations. Why would you do that? room to interpretations.
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We can only make assumptions here. But it could be to reassure assumptions here but it could be to reassure investors on the fact would you do that we can only make it Thompson's here but it assumptions here but it could be to reassure investors on the fact What would you do that we can only make assumptions here but it could be
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investors on the fact that GTA Online drives so much revenues, that GTA online drops so much revenues that GTA doesn't have to could be to reassure investors on the fact that GTA online drops that gtl line graphs so much revenues that you da doesn't have to be to reassure investors on the fact that GTA online drives so much revenues.
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that GTA doesn't have to be released each year. be released each year moving so let's look at an important too much revenues that GTA doesn't have to be released each year released each year moving on let's look at an important question for That GTA doesn't have to be released, it shared.
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Moving on, let's look at an important question for every question for every publisher which is the playtime in video game moving on let's look at an important question for every publisher which every publisher which is the play time in video game impressive right Moving on let's look at an important questions.
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publisher. Which is the playtime in video is the Playtime in video game impressive right well yeah the title For every publisher, which is the playtime in video game.
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game. Impressive, right? impressive right well yeah the title is pretty impressive let's dig well yeah the title is pretty impressive let's dig into this in Impressive right well, yeah, the title is pretty impressive.
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Well, yeah. The title is pretty impressive. is pretty impressive let's dig into this and its latent investor Let's dig into this in its latest investor announcement.
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Let's dig into this. In its latest investor into this in its latest investor announcement Activision proudly its latest investor announcement activision probably revealed that
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announcement, Activision proudly revealed that daily player revealed that daily player engagement is now well about three hours per announcement Activision proudly revealed that the daily player daily player engagement is now well about three hours per day and Activision probably revealed that daily player engagement is
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engagement is now well about three hours per day, and the Destiny day and the destiny community ask climbed over twenty five million engagement is now well about 3 hours per day and the destiny the destiny community ask climbed over twenty five million registered now well about 3 hours per day.
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community has climbed over twenty five million registered players. registered players but can we conclude that there are twenty community at climbed over 25 million registered players but players but can we conclude that there are twenty five million players And Destiny community as climbed over 25000000 registered players.
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But can we conclude that there are five million destiny players that played on average three hours a day can we conclude that there are 25 million Disney players that But can we conclude that there are 25000000 destiny
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twenty five million Destiny players that play on average three hours played on average 3 hours a day the answer as you may have guessed that play on average three hours a day the answer as you may have players that play on average, 3 hours a day.
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a day? The answer, as you may have the answer as you may have guessed is no Activision talks about The answer as you may have guessed is no.
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guessed, is no. the community of twenty five million registered players the key word it is no Activision talks about a community of 25 million registered guessed is now activision talks about a community of twenty five Activision talks about a community of 25000000 registered players.
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Activision talks about the community of twenty five million million richer players the key word reduced it this means that they have
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registered players. The key word is "registered". is registered this means that they have seen twenty five million players the keyword it registered this means that they have seen The key word is reduced it.
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This means that they have seen twenty five million people go 25 million people go through their system bit at Players we did not twenty five million people go through their systems they get players who This means that they have seen 25000000 people go
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through their systems. Beta players who did not purchase people go through their systems better players who did not purchase through their systems.
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the game are counted. As well as players who have played the game are counted as well as players who have played but stopped protect the game or counted as well as players who have played did not have changed the game are counted as well as players who have Video players would did not purchase the game are counted
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but stopped. There are not twenty five million they are not twenty five million people playing destiny best twenty but stopped they are not 25 million people playing Destiny at best played but start they are not twenty five million people playing destiny as well as players who have played but stopped they are not
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people playing Destiny. At best twenty five million people five million people have tried destiny now about the time spent let's twenty five million people have tried this to me now about the time twenty five million people have tried testing now about the time 25000000 people playing destiny.
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have tried Destiny. Now. 25000000 people have tried this teeny now about the time
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About the time spent. Let's be clear. be clear Activision had blurry choice of words to describe the time spent let's be clear Activision had blurry choice of words to spent let's be clear activision had blurry choice of words to describe spent let's be clear, Activision had blurry choice of
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Activision had a blurry choice of words to describe the time spent. spent the lead player engagement is not a universal KPI but one describe the time spent daily player engagement is not a universal the time spent they leap player engagement is not a universal kick words to describe the time spent.
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Daily player engagement is not a universal KPI. kpi but one thing is sure it does not mean that the 25 million yeah but one thing is sure it does not mean that the twenty five million Daily player engagement is not a universal API,
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But one thing is sure. It does not mean thing is sure it does not mean that the twenty five million but one thing is sure it does not mean that the 25000000
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that the twenty five million registered players spend three registered players spend three hours per day on average the best registered players been 3 hours per day on average the best guess registered players spend three hours per day on average the best guess registered players spend 3 hours per day on average.
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hours per day on average. The best guess we can make is that guess we can make is that sort of people play on a given day the average we can make is that for the people who play on the given day the average we can make is that sort of people play on a given day the average The best guess we can make is that for the people who play on a given day,
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for the people who play on a given day,
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the average time spent is about three hours. time spent is about three hours note that part of the players did time spent is about 3 hours note that part of the players did spend time spent is about three hours note that part of the players did the average time spent is about 3 house.
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Note that part of the players did spend a lot more than three hours. spend a lot more than three hours it isn't average and averages are a lot more than 3 hours it isn't average and averages are always spend a lot more than three hours it is an average and averages are Note that part of the players did spend a lot more than 3 hours.
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It is an average, and averages are always inflated by particular always inflated by particular behaviors once again the numbers inflated by particular behaviors once again the numbers are probably always plated by particular behaviors once again the numbers are probably It isn't average and averages are always insulated by
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behaviors. Once again, are probably accurate at this time choice of words is prone to rebate accurate but big time the choice of words is voluntary big and it accurate but time to choice of words his own terry vague and it is normal particular behaviors once again, the numbers are probably accurate.
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the numbers are probably accurate.
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But this time, the choice of words is voluntarily At this time to choice of words is voluntary,
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vague. And it is normal for a publisher and it is normal for a publisher to show the bright side of business is normal for a publisher to show the bright side of business every for a publisher to show the bright side of business every company does vague and it is normal for publisher to show the bright side of business.
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to show the bright side of business. Every company does that, but let's remain cautious and
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Every company does that. But let's remain cautious every company does that but let's remain coaches and keep a critical company that that but let's remain kosher and keep a critical eye that but let's remain kosher and keep a critical eye when confronted keep a critical eye when confronted with such statements.
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and keep a critical eye when confronted with such statements. eye when confronted with such statements to conclude data is when confronted with such statements to conclude data is truly powerful with such statements — To conclude data is truly powerful to bring
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To conclude, data is truly powerful to bring objectivity in truly powerful to bring objectivity in decision making as long as it to bring up the activity in decision-making as long as it objectivity in decision making as long as it is not manipulated — To conclude data is truly powerful to bring objective
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decision making. as long as it is not manipulated. is not manipulated there are so many explanations of why data can is not manipulated there are so many explanations of why data can ihtti in decision-making as long as it is not manipulated.
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There are so many explanations of why data can be misleading. be misleading in the second it eighteen WNED be misleading in the second episode we will see completely different examples There are so many explanations of why data can be misleading — The second There are so many explanations of why data can be misleading.
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In the second episode, we'll see completely different examples. In the second episode, we will see completely
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different example stay tuned.